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Summary: Based on satellite photos of night light from NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, and using the methodology proposed by Henderson, Storeygard and Weil (2012), this paper measures the economic growth of the main 15 beach tourist areas in Mexico for the period from 1993 to 2017. This methodology opens a new series of opportunities to measure economic activity, by providing new tools for measurement at the regional level, regardless of administrative boundaries.
Author(s): Llamosas-Rosas Irving; Rangel González Erick; Sandoval Bustos Maritza     


Summary: The article studies the macroeconomic impact of oil price changes in 17 highly heterogeneous countries classified in six groups: advanced, emerging, oil producer, non-oil producers, with energy price controls and without energy price controls. The results show that despite analyzed countries differ in several dimensions, most differences regarding oil price shocks impacts can be captured comparing two groups: advanced vs. emerging. Moreover, most of the differences in the way countries react to oil price shocks come from the source of the shock rather than by the group which the countries belong to. Remarkably, there are no significant differences in the response of industrial production between oil and non-oil producer countries. We posit, as potential explanations of the later finding the decline in the energy intensity of the global economy and the degree of trade openness.
Author(s): Guerrero Santiago; Hernández del Valle Gerardo; Hernández Vega Marco A.     


Summary: In this article we study the market duration of new housing built by developers in Mexico between 2013 and 2015. In particular, this document discusses whether the physical characteristics of housing, state of location, date put on sale, time of construction, the initial price and the size of the developer have any effect on the duration of new houses in the market. We use a survival analysis Cox model. The most important results indicate that the probability of a new house being sold between t and t+1 (hazard rate) decreases with time and, in general, is lower for units of larger size, those that took much time on the construction process, and those constructed by small developers.
Author(s): Rodríguez-Zamora Carolina; Morales Ramírez Alejandro     


Summary: Using an up-to-date database that improves the identification of the destination of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) among Mexican states and spatial panel econometric models that quantify the potential interactions and spillover effects, we analyze the main characteristics that help understand the regional distribution of manufacturing FDI in Mexico. Our main findings indicate the presence of a positive spatial relationship among states' FDI; for example, a higher investment creates a positive spillover effect on neighboring states' FDI and positive direct and indirect effects of human capital, agglomeration and states' fiscal margin. Based on the results of this research, key implications for public policy oriented to strengthen the FDI reside in increasing the average education level and improving tax revenue of Mexican states.
Author(s): Fonseca Felipe J.; Llamosas-Rosas Irving     


Summary: This paper evaluates five Nowcasting models that forecast Mexico's quarterly GDP: a Dynamic Factor Model (MFD), two Bridge Equation Models (BE) and two Principal Components Models (PCA). The results indicate that the average of the BE forecasts is statistically better than the rest of the models under consideration, according to the Diebold-Mariano (1995) accuracy test. In addition, using real-time information, the BE average is found to be more accurate than the median of the forecasts provided by the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and the median of the experts who answer Banco de México's Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Author(s): Gálvez-Soriano Oscar de Jesús     


Summary: We consider the problem of matching a set of medical students to a set of medical residency positions (hospitals) under the assumption that hospitals' preferences over groups of students are responsive. In this context, we study the preference revelation game induced by the student proposing deferred acceptance mechanism. We show that the acyclicity of the hospitals' preference profile (Romero-Medina and Triossi, 2013a) is a necessary and sufficient condition to ensure that the outcome of every Nash equilibrium in which each hospital plays a dropping strategy is stable.
Author(s): Tello Benjamín     


Summary: This paper examines how the 1990s capital account liberalization policy trend affected international capital flows, and tests a new hypothesis that the depth and efficiency of the domestic financial system impacts the efficacy of capital account policy. The paper exploits a recently published IMF database on financial development that spans the period 1980-2014 and includes both developing and developed countries. The results confirm that policy on average does not have a significant effect on gross capital flows, when controlling for other factors. I also find no effect on flows disaggregated by type and direction. However, interacting capital account policy and financial development, I do find that for financially developed countries, policy has the expected effect --policy openness leads to capital flows. The implication is that the effectiveness of capital account liberalization requires developing the domestic financial system.
Author(s): Ramsay Bush Georgia     


Summary: This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on FDI flows into the Mexican manufacturing sector during the period 2007-2015. Using a panel of manufacturing subsectors, we estimate a model by System GMM that includes domestic and external factors, as well as idiosyncratic (i.e. that affect manufacturing subsectors in a particular way) and aggregate (i.e. that affect all manufacturing subsectors in general) uncertainty measures as explicative variables. We also perform some simulations to quantify the effect of uncertainty on FDI flows. The main results show that uncertainty discourages FDI flows into the Mexican manufacturing sector. We also find that the idiosyncratic uncertainty measures are more important in explaining FDI flows than the aggregate uncertainty measures, with the exception of the global risk aversion index.
Author(s): López Noria Gabriela; Zamudio Fernández Juan José     


Summary: Using data of households approaching retirement in the U.S., I find that the Whites' median saving rates are 9 percentage points larger than the Mexican Americans' rates (ethnic gap) and than the African Americans' rates (racial gap). Two-thirds of each gap correspond to changes in asset prices and a third to households' active decisions. Quantile decompositions show that differences in income and education explain most of the active saving gaps. This implies that wealth inequality is not attributable to differences in the distributions of active saving rates conditional on socio-economic characteristics. When retirement assets are included, the racial but not the ethnic gap in total savings disappears. The results suggest that reducing disparities in income, education and pension savings would help to reduce wealth inequality.
Author(s): Dal Borgo Mariela     


Summary: This article combines data on trade flows with a novel construction of the distribution of skill in the population, based on the results from the International Adult Literacy Survey of the OECD, to evaluate the empirical importance of the distribution of talent as a determinant of the sectoral pattern of trade. It is found that both the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of skills are significant determinants of the pattern of trade. According to the results, cross-country differences in the distribution of skills explain more of the sectoral pattern of trade than differences in capital stocks and differences in indicators of a country's institutional framework.
Author(s): Cebreros Zurita Carlos Alfonso